China Suspends Fertiliser Exports, India Faces Supply Crunch and Price Hikes
China has again suspended exports of key fertilisers—urea, phosphate ingredients, and specialty products—as India begins its Rabi cropping season, threatening global supply chains and risking price hikes of 10–15%. While India’s current stocks may avert immediate shortages, prolonged restrictions could force a shift to alternative, less reliable suppliers. India is also exploring long-term solutions, including setting up urea plants abroad, as its imports from China drop sharply.
The article details how China’s latest suspension of fertiliser exports—including urea, phosphatic ingredients, and specialty products like AdBlue—coincides with India’s critical Rabi sowing period, raising fears of global price spikes and supply chain disruptions. Rajib Chakraborty of the Soluble Fertiliser Industry Association warns that prices could rise 10–15% due to tightened global supplies, with the most severe impact likely if the suspension extends beyond March 2026. While current stocks can cover immediate needs, India may face shortages for the next season unless it secures alternatives from countries like South Africa, Chile, and Croatia, though these sources are limited and may not fully substitute Chinese supplies. India’s domestic production of basic fertilisers like urea and DAP offsets some dependency, but advanced and specialty fertilisers—key for cash and horticulture crops—rely heavily on imports, especially from China. The article notes that while India has managed past supply shocks by diversifying sources, ongoing global volatility, high tariffs, and strained diplomatic relations complicate efforts to secure reliable alternatives. Proposed solutions include setting up urea plants in Russia, leveraging its abundant natural resources, though geopolitical tensions add uncertainty. The article underscores that India’s fertiliser import volumes have already declined significantly, reflecting both policy diversification and global turbulence. Ultimately, the piece highlights the need for agile diplomatic and trade strategies to ensure stable fertiliser supplies for Indian agriculture in an increasingly unpredictable global market.
