IEA Challenges Pakistan, Indo-Afghan Relations, and Regional Dynamics
The article examines the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan's (IEA) hostilities toward Pakistan, failures in bilateral peace efforts, and the geopolitical implications of its ties with India. Pakistan demands dismantling terrorist sanctuaries and curtailing IEA support to TTP. Despite IEA’s outreach to India, the relationship remains cautious and limited due to international considerations. Pakistan's attempts to induce behavioral change in the IEA have largely failed, raising concerns over regional stability and potential regime changes.
This article provides an in-depth analysis of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan's (IEA) complex relations with Pakistan, India, and the international community amid ongoing security challenges. It highlights Pakistan’s insistence on four main demands: dismantling terrorist safe havens in Afghanistan, arresting TTP leaders, stopping IEA logistical support to TTP, and implementing a verifiable infiltration monitoring mechanism. The October 2025 Istanbul talks brokered by Türkiye and Qatar aimed at ceasefire measures, but tensions persist as IEA’s Haqqani network leadership increasingly distances itself from pro-Pakistan stances, issuing threats against Islamabad. The article challenges the myth of the IEA’s invincibility by underscoring Pakistan’s decisive past support during the Soviet invasion and the US-NATO conflict, asserting Pakistan's crucial role in shaping Afghanistan’s outcomes. It critiques Afghanistan’s overreach towards India, noting the strategic impracticality for India to support an isolated regime facing international disapproval, including accusations of terrorism sponsorship and gender apartheid. It underscores internal IEA skepticism about collaboration with India due to historic animosities. Pakistan’s policy of mixing military operations with diplomatic engagement reflects exhaustion in changing the IEA’s hostile posture, compounded by the IEA’s use of terrorism as state policy. The article also notes shifting international dynamics with a growing possibility of IEA regime change influenced by the West plus Pakistan. Upcoming discussions will address Afghanistan’s military geography, power centers, and the ethno-religious dilemmas facing Pakistan amid this evolving crisis.
