India Emerges as Key Driver of Global Oil Demand Growth
India is set to become the largest contributor to global oil demand growth, driven by strong economic momentum, urbanization, and rising transport and industrial needs. The IEA projects India will account for over one-third of global oil demand gains by 2030, with total demand reaching 6.6 million barrels per day. Despite efforts to boost renewables, oil remains central to India's near-term growth, increasing its import dependence and strategic vulnerabilities.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) identifies India as a major engine of rising oil demand, highlighting a structural shift in global energy markets. While advanced nations and China see slowing oil consumption, emerging economies like India, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa are now leading growth. India is projected to contribute more than one-third of the global oil demand increase by 2030, with total demand expected to reach 6.6 million barrels per day. This surge is driven by robust GDP growth, a young and expanding population, rapid urbanization, and increased demand from transport, logistics, and industry. The IEA warns that despite global investment in renewables and efficiency, hydrocarbons remain central to economic growth, especially in emerging markets. India's reliance on oil imports exceeds 85%, making it vulnerable to price volatility and geopolitical risks. The agency cautions that faster-than-expected demand growth could strain global supply buffers and increase market volatility. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol stresses the need for integrated policy frameworks to balance energy security, affordability, access, competitiveness, and climate goals as the world transitions to cleaner energy.
