India to Cut Direct Russian Crude Imports from December Amid US Sanctions
India will reduce direct imports of Russian crude oil from late November due to new US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil. Major refiners, including Reliance Industries, Mangalore Refinery, and HPCL-Mittal Energy, will halt or cut purchases. Russian oil arrivals are expected to sharply decline in December, with a gradual recovery through early 2026 via intermediaries. Nayara Energy's Vadinar refinery will continue importing Russian crude.
India is set to curb its direct imports of Russian crude oil starting late November, following the introduction of new US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, effective November 21. Indian refiners accounting for more than half of the country's Russian crude imports, such as Reliance Industries, Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd, and HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd, have announced plans to suspend future imports. These three companies accounted for over half of the 1.8 million barrels of Russian crude imported in the first half of 2025. According to analysts, this will trigger a sharp decline in Russian crude arrivals in December, with a gradual recovery projected through early 2026 via intermediaries and alternative trading routes. Nayara Energy's Vadinar refinery, partially owned by Rosneft and already under EU sanctions, is expected to maintain its Russian crude intake. Russian shipments to India reached 1.6-1.8 million barrels per day before the sanctions, but declines have been observed since October 21 as refiners avoided potential US OFAC exposure. Analysts believe Russian barrels are unlikely to disappear entirely, but future imports will rely on more complex logistics and trading arrangements. To offset reduced Russian flows, Indian refiners are increasing procurement from the Middle East, Latin America, West Africa, Canada, and the United States. US crude imports hit 568,000 barrels per day in October, the highest since March 2021, driven by economics and arbitrage opportunities. Flows are expected to normalize to 250-350,000 barrels per day in December and January. Higher freight costs could limit the scale of substitution by eroding arbitrage opportunities. Overall, refiners are likely to broaden their import baskets, with higher inflows from Latin America, the United States, West Africa, and the Middle East. While near-term Russian imports may dip starting in December, Russian barrels will continue reaching India through intermediaries.
