India to Reduce Direct Russian Crude Imports Amid US Sanctions
India will sharply cut direct imports of Russian crude oil from late November due to new US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil. Major refiners, including Reliance Industries, MRPL, and HPCL-Mittal Energy, will halt direct purchases. Russian arrivals are expected to decline in December but may recover gradually through intermediaries by early 2026. Indian refiners are diversifying sources to compensate.
India is set to significantly reduce its direct imports of Russian crude oil starting late November 2025, following new US sanctions targeting Rosneft and Lukoil that take effect on November 21. Analysts predict that major Indian refiners, which account for over half of the country's Russian crude purchases, will comply with these sanctions. These refiners play a crucial role in converting imported crude into fuels like petrol and diesel, making their decisions vital for India's oil supply chain. Maritime intelligence firm Kpler forecasts a sharp drop in Russian crude arrivals in December, with a gradual recovery expected by early 2026 through intermediaries and alternative trading routes. Reliance Industries Ltd, India's top importer with a long-term contract with Rosneft, has confirmed it will halt Russian oil imports. Two other state-backed refiners, Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd (MRPL) and HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd, have also announced plans to suspend future imports. Together, these three refiners accounted for more than half of India's 1.8 million barrels per day of Russian crude imports in the first half of 2025. In contrast, Nayara Energy's Vadinar refinery, partly owned by Rosneft and already under EU sanctions, is expected to maintain its Russian crude intake. Analysts note that while Russian barrels will not disappear entirely, future imports will involve more complex logistics and trading arrangements. To compensate for reduced Russian supplies, Indian refiners are diversifying their sources, increasing purchases from the Middle East, Latin America, West Africa, Canada, and the United States. US crude imports to India hit 568,000 barrels per day in October—the highest since March 2021—driven primarily by favorable economics rather than sanctions. Flows are expected to normalize to 250,000–350,000 barrels per day in December and January. Rising freight costs could limit substitution, as higher transportation expenses reduce arbitrage advantages. Overall, while Russian crude imports to India may dip in the near term, barrels are expected to continue arriving through indirect channels, ensuring a degree of continuity in supply.
