India's Russian Crude Imports Plunge to Three-Year Low Amid US Sanctions
India's Russian crude imports are set to hit a three-year low in December, averaging 1.1 million barrels per day, primarily due to tighter US sanctions. While some state refiners resumed purchases, Reliance Industries paused buying from sanctioned entities. This slowdown reflects a recalibration under regulatory pressure. Future flows might see a recovery in early 2026 as refiners adjust operations, though volumes remain sensitive to policy and refinery decisions.
India’s intake of Russian crude oil is projected to reach its lowest point in three years this December, with average daily shipments expected around 1.1 million barrels. This significant decline, marking the weakest level since November 2022, is largely attributed to the tightening of US sanctions, which have intensified scrutiny on India and Russia's oil trade. The slowdown reflects adjustments in procurement strategies by Indian refiners rather than a collapse in demand.Key factors contributing to the dip include the response of major players to regulatory pressure. While state-owned companies like Indian Oil Corp. and Bharat Petroleum Corp. resumed purchasing discounted Russian barrels after an earlier dip in July, India's largest private refiner, Reliance Industries Ltd., paused buying from sanctioned entities such as Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC in late October. Reliance has since diversified its sourcing to non-blacklisted producers. Furthermore, facilities like HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd. and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd. have shown reduced or no Russian crude intake this month, contributing to the overall decline.Despite the current downturn, there are indications of a potential recovery in early 2026. Nayara Energy Ltd., which is backed by Rosneft, plans to postpone scheduled maintenance at its Vadinar refinery, potentially allowing for higher processing runs and increased Russian crude purchases. This suggests that the market is recalibrating under the influence of sanctions rather than outright abandoning Russian supply. Future import volumes are expected to remain highly sensitive to evolving policy landscapes and refinery operational adjustments. The situation underscores the complex interplay of geopolitical pressures and market dynamics in global energy trade.
