New US Sanctions Threaten Sharp but Partial Drop in India's Russian Oil Imports
US sanctions targeting Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia's major oil exporters, effective November 21, are expected to cause a significant short-term decline in India's Russian crude oil imports, from about 1.8 million barrels per day to an estimated 400,000 barrels per day. However, imports will not halt completely, as India seeks to navigate sanctions via non-designated Russian producers and intermediaries while increasing purchases from other global suppliers.
New US sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil that took effect on November 21, 2025, have introduced substantial challenges to India's heavy reliance on discounted Russian crude oil, which accounted for nearly 40% of India's crude imports this year. Ahead of the sanctions deadline, Indian refiners maximized purchases, keeping imports steady at around 1.8-1.9 million barrels per day in November. Analysts project a sharp near-term drop to roughly 400,000 barrels per day in December and January, mainly as companies like Reliance Industries and HPCL-Mittal Energy halt purchases from sanctioned entities. Nevertheless, some imports continue through Rosneft-backed Nayara Energy, and legally through non-sanctioned Russian producers such as Surgutneftegaz and Gazprom Neft, as crude itself is not sanctioned, but the companies are. India’s complex refining infrastructure allows substitution of Russian barrels but may tighten profit margins, prompting a shift to Middle Eastern, Latin American, West African, and North American oil supplies. The Indian government continues to prioritize energy affordability and security, making a total halt to Russian oil imports unlikely unless secondary sanctions explicitly target Indian buyers. The evolving sanctions regime, reliance on indirect channels, and supply chain adaptations contribute to an uncertain and volatile landscape for India's crude oil imports from Russia in the near future.
