Pakistan and India's Overlapping Naval Exercises Raise Tensions in Arabian Sea
Pakistan has issued a new Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) for naval exercises coinciding with India's designated exercise area in the Arabian Sea, leading to overlapping zones and heightened military activity near the disputed Sir Creek border. Both countries are conducting live drills and missile tests, with Pakistan’s exercises running from November 2 to 5 and India’s from October 30 to November 11, but experts believe direct conflict is unlikely due to established coordination mechanisms.
Recent military maneuvers in the Arabian Sea have escalated tensions between India and Pakistan, as Pakistan’s newly issued naval NOTAM for live firing and missile testing overlaps with India’s previously designated exercise area for its tri-service ‘Trishul’ drill, which involves the Army, Navy, and Air Force. The overlapping zones, visible on maps, have sparked concerns about potential confrontations, especially near the disputed Sir Creek maritime border. However, analysts suggest that while the geographic overlap is significant, the risk of an actual clash remains low because Pakistan is focusing on naval exercises while India’s drills are primarily airborne, and there are established military-technical coordination channels between the two countries. The timing of the exercises is notable: Pakistan's activities are scheduled from November 2 to 5, directly within the window of India’s exercise, which runs from October 30 to November 11. The Sir Creek region, a long-disputed area between India and Pakistan, has seen increased military activity and rhetoric, with Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh warning of a strong response to any provocation. The Pakistan Navy has additionally issued warnings to merchant ships to stay clear of its 135-kilometre maritime exercise zone. India’s broader NOTAM includes large parts of the country, reflecting heightened operational readiness amid ongoing tensions with both Pakistan and China. Despite the proximity of the exercises and the history of border disputes, the presence of de-escalation mechanisms and distinct operational domains (air vs. sea) currently reduces the likelihood of an unintended conflict.
