Palm Oil Demand from India and China Expected to Rise, Analyst Forecasts
Analyst Thomas Mielke predicts increased palm oil purchases from India and China between January and April, driven by anticipated declining stocks. While India's vegetable oil imports are set to climb, China's overall demand is expected to soften, yet its palm oil demand will pick up. Globally, edible oil consumption is projected to surpass production in the 2025/2026 season, signaling potential market shifts.
Palm oil imports by key consumers India and China are projected to see a significant uptick in the period from January to April, according to analyst Thomas Mielke. This anticipated increase is attributed to Mielke's forecast of declining global palm oil stocks. The report highlights nuanced trends within these major markets: India is expected to boost its overall vegetable oil imports, reflecting a growing domestic consumption need. Conversely, China's general demand for edible oils is anticipated to weaken, although its specific demand for palm oil is still expected to rise. This indicates a potential shift in commodity preference or strategic stocking. Looking at the broader picture, the global edible oil market is poised for a supply-demand imbalance. Projections suggest that worldwide edible oil consumption will outstrip production during the 2025/2026 season. This imbalance could lead to tighter supplies and potentially impact global commodity prices, further emphasizing the importance of the immediate increase in demand from India and China in stabilizing or influencing market dynamics in the short term. The analyst's outlook provides a crucial snapshot of immediate market movements and a longer-term forecast for the edible oil sector.
