Russian crude oil imports to India remain steady despite looming US sanctions
India's imports of Russian crude oil stayed largely stable at around 1.62 million barrels per day in October 2025, slightly up from September. Upcoming US sanctions on Russian oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil, effective November 21, 2025, are expected to cause a decline in imports in December, followed by a gradual recovery through early 2026. Indian refiners are adapting by seeking supplies from other sources and intermediaries.
In October 2025, India imported approximately 1.62 million barrels per day (mb/d) of Russian crude oil, representing a 2.53% month-on-month increase from September levels, according to ship tracking and analytics firm Kpler. Despite an 8% annual decrease in Russian shipments, imports remain robust as Indian refiners capitalize on favorable margins and rising domestic demand. However, significant US sanctions announced on October 22, targeting Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil—which supply more than 70% of the Russian crude India imports—will come into effect on November 21, 2025. This has led Indian refiners such as Reliance Industries and Mangalore Refineries to halt or reduce direct purchases from these sanctioned producers and explore alternative crude sources including Latin America, the US, West Africa, and the Middle East. Analysts expect Russian crude arrivals in India to dip sharply in December but recover gradually by early 2026 due to new trading intermediaries and alternative routing strategies. The pace of recovery depends on refiners managing reputational risks and navigating potential US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) scrutiny. Despite sanctions pressure, complete cessation of Russian oil imports is considered unlikely given India’s geopolitical stance and domestic energy needs. Meanwhile, Indian crude imports from Russia averaged 1.74 mb/d from January to October 2025, down slightly from 1.81 mb/d the previous year, reflecting ongoing diversification in India's crude procurement mix while still maintaining Russia as a key supplier overall.
