Russian oil flows to India set to surge ahead of US sanctions
Indian refiners are expected to increase Russian crude oil imports in early November before US sanctions on Russia's top oil producers take effect. Concurrently, US crude supply to India has risen, becoming the country's fourth-largest source due to economic advantages and price differences. Indian refiners are adjusting procurement strategies in response to forthcoming sanctions and seeking alternatives like American crude for 2026.
Indian refiners are poised to significantly increase Russian crude oil imports in early November as they aim to secure supply before new US sanctions fully restrict transactions with Russia's leading oil producers, Lukoil and Rosneft, which take effect from November 21. This planned surge follows a recent rise in Russian oil shipments to India, which reached about 1.48 million barrels per day in October. However, refiners such as Reliance Industries and Mangalore Refineries have already paused purchases of Russian oil and are exploring alternatives, including increased procurement from the Americas. US crude supplies to India have grown notably, making the US the fourth-largest source of crude for India, driven by favorable pricing compared to Brent crude. Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), India's largest state-run refiner, is seeking up to 24 million barrels of crude from North and Latin America for early 2026 deliveries in preparation for potential declines in Russian imports. The US sanctions have urged Indian refiners to balance compliance with operational needs by diversifying supply sources while managing strategic petroleum reserves and infrastructure adjustments. This shift highlights how geopolitical sanctions are reshaping global energy trade and prompting Indian refiners to adopt more flexible and diversified procurement strategies to maintain energy security and cost efficiency.
